The wild-and-wooly contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is making some small-fry pollsters rich and driving others bananas.
Pollster.com, a Website devoted to the polling industry, has zeroed in on Public Policy Polling and Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage (IA) for a look at bizarre numbers the two services are using to gauge the North Carolina primary. Here's the crux of Pollster.com’s analysis:
--Note two very striking changes from two pollsters that set pre-determined demographic targets, Public Policy Polling (PPP) and InsiderAdvantage:
--The first three surveys released in April by PPP had an African American composition of 36% or 37%. Their most recent survey, fielded last Sunday and Monday evenings, had a black composition of just 33%.
-- The gyrations in the weighting by InsiderAdvantage are even more dizzying. Their first North Carolina survey in late March was 37% African American. Their next two surveys in April were only 25% African American, and their most recent poll last week bumped the black percentage back up to 33%. Notice that none of their percentages for women, 18-29-year-olds, 18-44-year-olds or those 65+ changed by a single digit, despite a 12-point variance in the black percentage.
P.S.: IA notes its recent successes in some polls, which pollster.com labels as “curious episodes.” In any event, polling is not the fun business it used to be. It requires too much guesswork and generates too many jitters on election eve. Here's some more from Mystery Pollster's National Journal column and pollster.com's own expose of Insider Advantage's interesting crosstabs.
You can't argue with success
IA got it on the nose yesterday - McCain overwhelmingly won in North Carolina.
IA most brilliant publication since Animal Farm
It amazes me that most IA readers don't see the political satire. It is truly a hilarious parody of web-based "news" sites. Even the name is part of the gag - insider's really do have an advantage, which is why they go to jail. Ask Martha Stewart.
The ceaselss pandering to Republicans, especially ones in power. Re-defining political power to mean anyone who advertises on the site. The distinguished lineup of failed politicians who "write" for it.
Towery's street cred is unimpeachable. He was a successful standup comedian and impressionist before becoming a political satirist. Stephen Colbert admits that Towery's IA material sold him on the comedic possibilities of acting like a serious right wing new organization.
We look at Fox News and get ill; Towery looked at Fox News and saw a target. Colbert may be a slightly better comic but Towery shuts him down as a satirist - just look at any of the "Internet News Agency Georgia TV's 3 Minute Updates." The set - too busy, too red, too ostentatious - visually reinforces the messages that all politicians are for sale and that news organizations make them available.
The crowning achievement is the IA poll. While IA has been picked up by some news organizations as a legitimate commentator, everyone seems to love the poll. IA numbers appear everywhere. They are carefully crafted so IA can claim prescience later. The crowning achievement of Towery's career will be that Politics.com and National Journal fell for it.
That's right!
I forgot that Towery started out as a comedian!
didn't he play Las Vegas once?
I remember him being a big hit in LA or Vegas or something like that.
Didn't he play Las Vegas once?
It was Daufauskie Island. The big room.
An outing of Insider Advantages's credibility
Based upon these observations, this polling outfit has quite a bit of explaining to do inorder to maintain its credibility. Based upon the technical content of these observations, major news outlets that provide a platform for exposure of Insider Advantages's analyses should be asking for explanations from Matt Towery and his associates. A casual observer could very easily come to the conclusion that this polling group does indeed have a political agenda or an ax to grind.
Leave Towery alone
He just wants everyone to think he's cool. Maybe he didn't get enough female attention for writing "Power Chicks," so he feels the need to put out "polls" to get their attention.
Hey, don't knock "Power Chicks"
It is being made into a movie. But then so was "Hairspray."
That's it! Towery is channeling John Waters! The glasses! The sensuality! The tenuous link with reality!
What is this with chicken metaphors in Republican politics?
Perdue, a chicken brand and governor. Cagle, a chicken brand and lieutenant governor. Richardson, a chicken. Is it any wonder that Towery writes about chicks?