Even though the Barack Obama campaign has begun advertising in Georgia and other Southern red states, Thomas Schaller doubts the presumptive Democratic nominee can actually flip any of the GOP's solid South in a New York Times editorial today. Schaller, who wrote a book urging Democrats to focus on winning national elections with a strategy that excludes a Southern appeal, points to the curious case of Mississippi.
In the state, Obama could receive up to 37% of total votes just from African American voters, and would only need 21% of white voters' ballots to get to 50% and take the state's 6 electoral votes. Unfortunately, 21% would represent a 50% increase over John Kerry's haul in 2004, which was just 14%.
In Georgia, Kerry got about 23% of all white votes, and the African-American percentage of the electorate was 25%. Based on Schaller's math, Obama would need to similarly increase his share of white voters in the Peach state to just under 33% to win, or slightly less if Libertarian Bob Barr takes votes from John McCain. That will be tough: though Bill Clinton likely got that number in the 1990's, that would have been the last time it happened. Al Gore's estimated share of the white vote clocked in just under 30% in 2000.
John Stone denies using robocalls while using them
John Stone denies using robocalls while using them
(Rincon) – Homes in the 12th Congressional District have been receiving automated phone calls on behalf of John Stone in contradiction to a statement that he is not using robocalls.
In an email sent out on Sunday, Stone stated his campaign was making live phone calls, and had not used “a single one of those awful, irritating automated ‘Robocalls’ that drive us all crazy! I got 11 robocalls last fall in the middle of the Georgia game and swore right then I would never use them.”
“My campaign started hearing from people last week that they were getting recorded phone messages urging them to vote for John Stone,” said Ray McKinney (R-Savannah), who is running against Stone in the Republican Primary. “Then I received an email from Toombs County Chairman Jim Collins who called Stone’s email statement ‘an out and out lie’ because he had received two robo-calls.”
After sending that email, Collins received a call from Stone. According to a subsequent email by Collins, Stone said the first call was from a volunteer reading from a script, but the second call was done with an automated system to about 20,000 voters.
“If the voter picked up the phone, they could choose to ‘press one to join the teleconference’ and if they did not pick up, they got the recorded message that I received,” wrote Collins. “Here is where John and I disagree. He does not think that this call meets the definition of a robo-call since he is available live if they press one. I am certain it is a robo-call. The computer or automated (hence the term robo for robotic) system does all the dialing, blasts it out to 20,000+ people, and John simply recorded the message that was played.”
McKinney commented: “I agree with Jim. Since I don't use political speak, I would consider 20,000 calls made by a machine a robo-call. But then, Mr. Stone likes to mince words. Remember, this is the same John Stone who wants to repeal tax incentives for oil companies, but has denied it is a tax increase by calling it an offset. I think the real lesson here is John is a typical politician.”